An analytical study of determiners of production and consumption of poultry in Egypt

Abourehab, A. E. F.; Ismail, O. A.; Alshishiny, A. S.; Dahshn, F. A.

doi:10.21608/aasj.2022.138979.1115

An analytical study of determiners of production and consumption of poultry in Egypt

Document Type : Research article

Authors

Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Al-Azhar University, Assiut, Egypt

10.21608/aasj.2022.138979.1115

Abstract

Poultry production is one of the main and important aspects in the activities of the agricultural sector, as it is considered one of the main sources of income from animal production in particular and from agricultural income in general, as the value of poultry production in Egypt in 2019 amounted to about 56 billion pounds, representing about 29.95% of the value of animal production of about 187 billion pounds And about 10.5% of the value of agricultural income in the same year, which amounted to about 534.6 billion pounds. Where statistics indicate an increasing deficit in the food balance of poultry meat as a result of the continuous increase in the demand for poultry meat and the inability of local production to meet it, which led to a rise in prices, where the total production of poultry meat in Egypt in 2019 was estimated at about 1900 thousand tons, compared to that, the consumed amount was about 1973 thousand tons, and then the self-sufficiency rate was about 96.30%, and then the food gap was estimated at about 73 thousand tons. By studying the determinants of poultry meat consumption, it was found from the multiple regression model in the double logarithmic form that the real prices of red meat, poultry, dairy, fish, and production (in thousand tons) are the most influential factors on the consumed quantity of poultry meat. It also shows that there is a statistically confirmed direct relationship between the quantity consumed of poultry meat and the prices of poultry, dairy, and production, and a statistically confirmed inverse relationship between the quantity consumed of poultry meat and both the prices of red meat, and the prices of fish. It is clear that an increase in poultry, dairy, and production prices by 10% leads to an increase in the quantity consumed of poultry meat by 0.628, 1.200, 10.023, respectively, and a decrease in red meat and fish prices by 10% leads to an increase in the total consumption of poultry meat by 1.567, 0.675, respectively, which is consistent with the economic logic, and the significance of the estimated model was confirmed at the level of significance 0.01.

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